Drivers of Land Conflict Progression Among Households in Dodoma City

Land conflicts in Dodoma City, Tanzania, are rooted in socio-economic disparities and weak legal and institutional systems, challenging urban and peri-urban development. This study explores how these issues influence conflict progression through a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative surveys (258 respondents) and qualitative interviews (12 key informants). Findings reveal that socio-economic factors, particularly education level (R² = 0.319) and employment status (R² = 0.289), significantly drive conflict progression, accounting for 35.5% of the variance. Poverty and income inequality exacerbate informal land transactions, while limited legal awareness heightens vulnerability. Legal and institutional weaknesses further perpetuate disputes, contributing 15.0% of the variance. Regression analysis confirms their combined influence (R² = 0.381), with institutional reforms showing potential to reduce conflicts (β = -0.183). Reforms such as digitised land records, decentralised dispute resolution, and a Land Crimes Tribunal could reduce conflicts. Socio-economic empowerment through lowering formalisation costs, legal education, and inclusive policies is also crucial. Policy suggestions include revising Tanzania's 1995 National Land Policy to improve transparency, accelerate titling, and encourage participatory planning. These initiatives are vital for reducing land conflicts and fostering equitable, sustainable urban growth in Dodoma and similar cities.